The following is a look at COVID-19 Cases & Deaths data from the New York Times since stay-at-home orders were imposed (or since April 1st if they weren’t). The dates and details of stay-at-home orders and their lifting are from the Washington Post article “Where states are reopening after America’s shutdown”.
Pettit’s Test (a statistical test for changes in trend) trend::pettit.test is performed on each set of data to determine where there is a shift in trend (if any). The results of this test are in the captions at the base of each graph and the blue vertical line indicates the date on which the shift in trend occurred according to the test.
Graph Legend
One of the most notable graphs is that of Minnesota. We’ll use it as an example for the descriptions below:
The lower most graph depicts raw cases/deaths:
- The beginning and end of stay-at-home orders are depicted by labeled vertical lines where applicable, with the corresponding dates.
- Linear regression is performed on the before & after lifting restrictions (or all the data if restrictions were not lifted). The slope of the line is printed near the line as
B: .... These can be compared to the linear regression of all the data to illustrate deviation from the overall trajectory.
The middle graph shows daily new cases/deaths:
- A loess regression illustrates whether there was a flux in these numbers after lifting restrictions.
- A horizontal line is drawn at the mean before & after restrictions lift for states where restrictions are lifted, additionally a Tukey boxplot shows the median and quartiles.
- The p.value of the T.test comparing the before & after data is plotted near the top.
The top graph shows the proportion/percent change in daily new cases/deaths. IE the change in the rate of infection:
- A loess regression illustrates whether there was a flux in these numbers after lifting restrictions.
- A horizontal line is drawn at the mean before & after restrictions lift for states where restrictions are lifted, additionally a Tukey boxplot shows the median and quartiles.
- The p.value of the T.test comparing the before & after data is plotted near the top.
Table of Contents
Legend
- State = State-name
- Is Open? = Logical indicating whether the state has lifted or never imposed restrictions
- Date_lifted = The date restrictions were lifted (if they were imposed)
- *D_pv = The p-value of the t-test comparing daily new cases/deaths before and after restrictions were lifted,
- *D_dm = The difference in means (after - before) of daily new cases/deaths.
- *%_pv = The p-value of the t-test comparing the rate of change in daily new cases/deaths before and after restrictions were lifted,
- *%_dm= The difference in means (after - before) of the rate of change in daily new cases/deaths before and after restrictions were lifted,
- Open = If restrictions were imposed and lifted, what types of establishments and activities are re-opened,
- Closed = If restrictions were imposed and lifted, what types of establishments and activities are still restricted.
The table makes it possible to compare the types of restrictions being lifted in states and whether lifting restrictions on those types of establishments is leading to a statistically significant change (the p-value) in the number of cases/deaths, and in what direction the change is occurs (the difference in means).
Alabama
Open: Gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, restaurant, bar dine-in services, beaches, retail stores
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Alaska
Open: Places of worship, bars, restaurant dine-in services, theaters, retail stores, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed:
Arizona
Open: Elective surgeries, casinos, gyms, major league sports without fans, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Bars, nightclubs
Arkansas
Open: Outdoor recreation, bars, restaurant dine-in services, bars, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Closed:
California
Open: Lower-risk businesses including bookstores, florists, clothing stores, Personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops in most of the state
Closed: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Colorado
Open: Campgrounds at some state parks, gyms, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Connecticut
Open: Restaurants for outdoor seating, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, retail stores, offices, outdoor museums, zoos
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Delaware
Open: Gyms; retail businesses; personal-care businesses such as barbershops, salons are by appointment only, Restaurants for dine-in services by reservation only, Beaches, community pools
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Florida
Open: Retail stores, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Bars in most of the state, Gyms, outdoor recreation, Sporting venues may operate without spectators
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert venues
Georgia
Open: Outdoor recreation, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, theaters, restaurant dine-in services, Bars, nightclubs
Closed: Live performance venues
Hawaii
Open: Retail businesses such as shopping malls, pet groomers, carwashes, Nonprofit organizations, Outdoor recreation
Closed: Restaurant dine-in services, Beaches can be used only for exercise
Idaho
Open: Restaurant dine-in services, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, places of worship, some retail stores, Bars, nightclubs, large venues such as movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Closed:
Illinois
Open: State parks, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, golf courses, retail stores
Closed: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, large venues such as movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Indiana
Open: Retail stores, bars, nightclubs, gyms, movie theaters, offices, places of worship, restaurant dine-in service, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Conventions, fairs, festivals, parades
Iowa
Open: Outdoor recreation, gyms, bars, restaurant dine-in service, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Kansas
Open: Gyms, bars, nightclubs, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, outdoor recreation, movie theaters, bowling alleys, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores
Closed:
Kentucky
Open: Non-urgent health-care services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores, churches, manufacturing companies, pet grooming services, Gyms, movie theaters
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Louisiana
Open: Places of worship, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, theaters, gyms, restaurant dine-in services, Retails stores, State parks, including overnight facilities for residents
Closed: Nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Maine
Open: Outdoor recreation, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Bars, tasting rooms for outdoor service, Retail stores, restaurant dine-in services in rural areas, Gyms, exercise facilities
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Maryland
Open: Outdoor recreation, restaurant dine-in services, places of worship, retail stores, personal-care businesses, such as salons, barbershops, by appointment only
Closed: Gyms, bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Massachusetts
Open: Places of worship, outdoor recreation, construction, manufacturing industries, Personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Retail stores, Restaurants for outdoor dining
Closed: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Michigan
Open: Outdoor recreation, construction businesses, Personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Retail stores, Restaurants for dine-in services, Bars
Closed: Gyms, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Minnesota
Open: Offices, gyms, outdoor recreation, theaters, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Bars, restaurants for dine-in service
Closed: Nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Mississippi
Open: Outdoor recreation, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, retail stores, restaurant dine-in services, Amusement parks, Bars, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Closed:
Missouri
Open: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Closed:
Montana
Open: Schools, outdoor recreation, places of worship, restaurant dine-in services, bars, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Entertainment venues
Closed:
Nebraska
Open: Bars, gyms, places of worship, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters
Nevada
Open: Gyms, bars, movie theaters, outdoor recreation sites, retail stores, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Nightclubs, concert, sporting venues with spectators
New Hampshire
Open: Outdoor recreation, gyms, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Hotels, short-term rentals, Restaurants for dine-in service in some counties
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
New Jersey
Open: Outdoor recreation, construction, retail stores, Beaches, boardwalks, lakeshores, Elective surgeries, Restaurants for outdoor dining
Closed: Gyms, bars, nightclubs, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
New Mexico
Open: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, outdoor recreation, pet services, retail stores
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
New York
Open: Outdoor recreational activities, state beaches, elective surgeries, drive-in movie theaters, curbside pickup for retail stores
Closed: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
North Carolina
Open: Outdoor recreation, retail stores, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Gyms, bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
North Dakota
Open: Outdoor recreation, gyms, restaurant dine-in services, bars, nightclubs, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters
Closed: Concert, sporting venues
Ohio
Open: Gyms, pools, offices, entertainment spaces, retail stores, construction sites, manufacturing, distribution companies, Restaurants, bar dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Oklahoma
Open: Places of worship, gyms, bars, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Closed:
Oregon
Open: Outdoor recreation, some retail stores, gyms, bars, restaurants for dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops in approved counties
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Pennsylvania
Open: Restaurants, bars at limited capacity, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershop, Outdoor recreation, retail stores
Closed: Gyms, nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Rhode Island
Open: Gyms, restaurant dine-in services, personal-care services such as salons, barbershops, outdoor recreation, retail stores, offices
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
South Carolina
Open: Gyms, restaurants dine-in services, retail stores, outdoor recreation, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Many attractions, including zoos, amusement park rides
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
South Dakota
Open:
Closed:
Tennessee
Open: Outdoor recreation, bars, gyms, retail stores, restaurants dine-in services, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, Large entertainment venues
Closed:
Texas
Open: Gyms, in-person summer school classes, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters, restaurant dine-in services, bars
Closed:
Utah
Open: Places of worship, bars, gyms, personal-care businesses, such as salons, barbershops, retail stores, bars, restaurant dine-in services
Closed:
Vermont
Open: Restaurants, bars for dine-in service, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, retail businesses, outdoor recreation locations, construction sites, manufacturing, distribution companies
Closed: Nightclubs, concert, sporting venues
Virginia
Open: Restaurant dine-in services, bars, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, retailers, outdoor recreation facilities, construction sites, manufacturing, distribution companies
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Washington
Open: Outdoor recreation, restaurant dine-in services in some counties, retail stores for curbside delivery, gyms, personal-care services such as salons, barbershops
Closed: Bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
West Virginia
Open: Outdoor fishing, Gyms, fitness centers, Casinos, Malls, Bars, Restaurants can offer indoor dining, Pet groomers, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops by appointment, Museums, zoos
Closed: Nightclubs, movie theaters, concert, sporting venues
Wisconsin
Open: Bars, gyms, restaurant dine-in services, retail stores, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops, movie theaters
Closed: Schools
Wyoming
Open: Restaurant dine-in services, bars, movie theaters, gyms, personal-care businesses such as salons, barbershops
Closed: